Nintendo Switch Sales Super Thread

Discussion in 'Nintendo' started by Odo, Mar 2, 2017.

  1. Odo

    Odo Well-Known Member

    It's about that time. Let's talk about Sales, shall we?

    Nintendo Switch Sales
    SUPER THREAD

    So far, there are no figures, the console comes out tomorrow. But I expect good numbers, because everyone is really excited about the new system. The console is beautiful, is powerful (for a handheld) and the message is simple to understand. Besides, one of the most well regarded franchises is its launch title, Zelda BotW, a game that everyone seems to be delighted about.

    Still, this new Nintendo era poses several challenges: First, it's a pricey console and comes with no games. Millions of people are happy with their PS4/X1 consoles and Nintendo doesn't have the 3DS to keep their business anymore, since the console is on their dying years, the 3DS era is gone (and even with 3DS, Nintendo is still not making good profit). Many features are still unclear such as Virtual Console and online gameplay. The thing is, Nintendo Switch has to work out this time or Nintendo will be in real trouble. We can't detail what kind of trouble yet, though.

    Despite all that, I'm optimistic and confident that Nintendo can deliver a great service with Switch and so are the market and the media. I only see good words about Switch in spite of some minor problems that can be patched up later on.

    SuperData has a report: "The research firm is expecting the console to sell 5 million units by the end of 2017." They're also concerned about the price: "Asking $300 for a new console without a bundled game is a comparatively higher barrier to entry for consumers, considering that the PlayStation 4 and Xbox One are already discounted and come with a free game," which I absolutely agree, but I don't expect it to be a problem once the console get some legs.

    Nintendo has shipped 2m and an expectation of 5-7m in the first year is very positive. We have to remember that Wii U hasn't sold more than 15m and Switch isn't being sold at loss (it can't be with this price tag anyway).

    So far, it's a console for early adopters and Zelda fans, but every Nintendo system is a bit like that and the list of games for this year is promising. In case only 30% of both Wii U and 3DS owners upgrade (it's very likely since Wii U owners have a dead console and 3DS owners have an old console), that and the new Zelda can be enough to pave the way for Switch.

    It's the most promising console since Wii and Nintendo is strong and smart on the handheld side. So far, despite a few problems, there are no reasons to be pessimist.


    Here, we can share our predictions, analysis, numbers, hopes for the product sales.
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  2. Juegos

    Juegos All mods go to heaven. Staff Member Moderator

    Here's hoping that the Switch sales make for a more pleasant topic than Wii U sales. I don't know if anyone ever moderated the Wii U sales thread, but I sure as hell didn't. :mlaugh:
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  3. theMightyME

    theMightyME Editor in Chief of TVEnthusiast

    you know... Nintendo blew it.. sales of the switch are just not comparable to LTD sales on the ps4 OR even the xbone... FAIL

    btw, something is supposed to happen tomorrow, but I don't remember what
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  4. Goodtwin

    Goodtwin Well-Known Member

    I am guestimating 3.5 million sold within two months, and heading into Black Friday Switch will have sold 7 million units. Christmas will push another 3 million units. No later than summer 18 Switch will have outsold Wii U lifetime.

    Sent from my SM-G360V using genital warts
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  5. theMightyME

    theMightyME Editor in Chief of TVEnthusiast

    that is about what I am reasonably hoping for.... my guess is right around 8 million for the first year, my hope is that it crosses 10... I hope it outpaces xbox one (and serpico combined) by the end of 2018

    setting my lifetime sales expectations at around 50 million, hoping it is twice that
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  6. Jacesonnall

    Jacesonnall Bruh

    With the dawn of what seems to be an a new "best game of all time" coming at launch, my flame for following Nintendo again is rekindling. Will be keeping up and analyzing sales with y'all.
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  7. Odo

    Odo Well-Known Member

    yeah, I got your point, but I've got to confess that a I had a lot of fun on that thread. Good discussions.

    Let's keep this thread very.. scientific. Numbers is the only thing that matters and we don't need to fight against people's predictions.
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  8. Odo

    Odo Well-Known Member

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  9. Goodtwin

    Goodtwin Well-Known Member

    When I was at Best Buy picking up my Switch, I overheard a couple employees discussing if the rumor was true that somebody had actually returned a Switch. My customer service rep tells them that was just a rumor, and looks at me and says she doesn't think anyone will be looking to return these bad boys. Very popular.

    I just found it comical. Switch was so popular today that rumors about someone actually returning one is a talking point amongst employees. It's launch day, it was always going to sell out, but it's good to see none the less.

    Sent from my SM-G360V using genital warts
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  10. Odo

    Odo Well-Known Member

  11. Odo

    Odo Well-Known Member

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  12. SirTurtlelot

    SirTurtlelot Member

    Considering pre-orders were sold out, the Switch is seemingly off to a good start. Let's up Nintendo can keep up the momentum in the coming months. The first year's game line-up alone is pretty awesome looking. Finding the right combination of good games coming each month/quarter and good marketing will be key for the Switch's success, as they were the downfall of the Wii U, in part at least.
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  13. Shoulder

    Shoulder Shouldy McShoulderface chippin' in

    One the one hand, it sold less, but on the other, it's still respectable, and of course sold more than the Wii U launch.
  14. Goodtwin

    Goodtwin Well-Known Member

    Nintendo has had issues with the UK market. Its the only market where Xbox actually does well outside of the US. I believe there are still countries in Europe where Wii U has sold more than Xbox One. Its good to see them off to a better start in the UK than Wii U, but I still suspect the UK will be a market with less than stellar reception for Switch. The two markets to watch are Japan and the US. Japan is the market where I think Nintendo can kill it, and the US is such a large market that even doing half of what the PS4 and Xbox One do on a monthly basis would be pretty decent. Sales for the first month wont mean a ton. The system will be supply constrained, and until we see what sales look like once supply outweighs demand, its tough to make any long term predictions. The fact that Nintendo has the ability to regroup and basically relaunch the Switch this holiday season is a pretty big trump card to be holding. If things look pretty rough, dropping the price to $249 with a pack in game is an option. If Switch holds strong and is on pace to sell 10+ million units in its first 12 months, do not expect a price drop until late 2018 at the earliest.
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  15. DarkDepths

    DarkDepths Your friendly neighbourhood robot overlord

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  16. Shoulder

    Shoulder Shouldy McShoulderface chippin' in

    So one thing that I think should be stressed is unlike the Switch's launch, all the other systems that people are comparing to were launched during the holiday season, so for even the Switch to have some decent launch numbers, especially Zelda's figures as well, is pretty impressive.

    First impressions are that Nintendo did at least make some effort to market the damn thing. Imagine that? Marketing sells shit. Who would've thunk it?
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  17. sjmartin79

    sjmartin79 White Phoenix of the Crown

    Allegedly, the Switch sold a little over 330,000 units in three days in Japan. More than the Wii U, but less than the Wii.

    Edit: PS4 sold 322,000 during it's first two days in Japan.
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  18. Odo

    Odo Well-Known Member

    Yeah

    The Nintendo Switch has sold an estimated 330,637 units in its first three days on sale in Japan.
    That’s according to Famitsu, which adds that The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild sold an estimated 190,060 copies in the country. That figure is retail only and does not include downloads.

    http://kotaku.com/the-first-nintendo-switch-sales-numbers-for-japan-1793032877
  19. Odo

    Odo Well-Known Member

    Great numbers from Japan as expected. This is Nintendo's domain.
  20. Odo

    Odo Well-Known Member

    The report for the Americas:


    1. Update on Nintendo Switch sales I'll break into a multi-tweet. This from an intvw with Reggie Fils-Aime, Nintendo of Amer. Pres
    2. Fri-Sat sales for Nintendo Switch exceeded first 2-day sales in Americas for any system in Nintendo history. Next biggest was Wii.
    3. This is particularly notable given that Switch launched in March, rather than holidays
    4. Zelda for Nintendo Switch the best selling standalone launch title (i.e. not a bundled game a la Wii Sports) in Nintendo history...
    5. ...beating Super Mario for N64
    6. Long term comparisons to Wii, which sold more than 100 m LTD, are tough. But good start for Switch, with big games coming.
    https://twitter.com/nickwingfield/status/838872510871433216
  21. Odo

    Odo Well-Known Member

    Zelda on the UK charts.

    Horizon is winning and it's one of the best PS4 releases ever. So it's really impressive that Zelda took number 2, considering the huge PS4 userbase. Other interesting information is that 1-2 Switch, an unusual release, took #4. That's impressive.


    1 (-) Horizon Zero Dawn (PS4)
    2 (-) The Legend Of Zelda: Breath Of The Wild (NS)
    3 (-) The Legend Of Zelda: Breath Of The Wild (Wii U)
    4 (-) 1-2-Switch (NS)
    5 (4) Grand Theft Auto V (PS4)
    6 (-) Super Bomberman R (NS)
    7 (6) Grand Theft Auto V (XO)
    8 (2) For Honor (PS4)
    9 (8) FIFA 17 (PS4)
    10(3) For Honor (XO)

    Read more: http://metro.co.uk/2017/03/06/ninte...n-is-new-uk-number-one-6490695/#ixzz4aeK4bmeU
  22. FriedShoes

    FriedShoes MLG Staff Member Moderator

    damn, I have bet riding that Horizon wouldnt break 2 million, lol
  23. Odo

    Odo Well-Known Member

    Horizon is gonna be huge. The game has a few flaws, but it's still wonderful.
  24. Odo

    Odo Well-Known Member

    Not only in America, but in Europe too.


    Nintendo of Europe says that Nintendo Switch sold more in its launch weekend than any other Nintendo hardware in history.

    What's more, The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild is the biggest-selling Nintendo launch title ever in Europe - beating the previous record holder Wii Sports (which was bundled with the hardware).


    http://www.gamesindustry.biz/articl...beat-wii-over-two-days-in-the-americas-report
  25. Odo

    Odo Well-Known Member

  26. Jacesonnall

    Jacesonnall Bruh

    Outperformed the Wii's first week launch sales in France too.

    The real question is what sales are going to look like all the way up to the holiday season. Will it be dead every month that isn't a special holiday or will it be able to look appealing for the majority of the months?
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  27. Shoulder

    Shoulder Shouldy McShoulderface chippin' in

    What intrigues me more than anything is how much it sold during this particular time of the year, when there is no upcoming major holidays (St. Patrick's Day isn't really a retail store's dream holiday for sales, let's face it). If Nintendo keeps this up with a steady flow of games, plenty of marketing (because now is the time to go full bore with it to keep that momentum going), introduce more features, fixes, and additions, the Switch should have a great holiday season.
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  28. Shoulder

    Shoulder Shouldy McShoulderface chippin' in

    I couldn't tell if I was dreaming this last night, or it was simply a thought that popped into my head concerning the Switch, but here we go anyway.

    So next month, we have Mario Kart 8 Deluxe, followed by ARMs around that same time, maybe in May. During the summer, we have Spla2oon, followed by Fire Emblem Warriors in the fall, and then to finish off the Holiday season, there's Mario Odyssey. I am not including Xenoblade 2 because I anticipate that launching spring of next year in the states, and EU.

    And that is only the big 1st party titles. There is of course all the Indie titles coming, and at least some AAA 3rd party titles, but I'm fairly certain most of those publishers are playing the waiting game.

    And hopefully in the process, Nintendo will continuously update the System, add mroe features, fix any bugs or glitches, and by the holiday season, it'll be an even more complete system. Just in time for when I'll get one. :mgrin:
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  29. Odo

    Odo Well-Known Member

    But IDC's research director for gaming and VR/AR, Lewis Ward, told CNBC he expects the Switch will ship approximately 8 million units worldwide through the end of first quarter-2018.

    "Switch is on track to ship 2 million by the end of March, so that's a solid start. I expect the Switch to sell much better in its first year than Wii U, but fewer than Wii did in the same period," said Ward.

    http://www.cnbc.com/2017/03/09/nintendo-switch-preliminary-sales-figures-promising-zelda-a-hit.html
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  30. Odo

    Odo Well-Known Member

    Nintendo has sold 1.5m Nintendo Switch consoles worldwide, SuperData says.

    Using data supplied to it by both Famitsu and GfK, SuperData says that 500,000 consoles were sold in the US, 360,000 were sold in Japan while Europe 'isn't far behind'. The data tracker observes that 85,000 units were sold in the UK while France managed 110,000.

    http://www.gamesindustry.biz/articles/2017-03-14-nintendo-switch-has-sold-1-5m-worldwide-superdata
    The number sounds right and it's spectacular. It seems to me that NS is really catching on among 3DS and Wii U owners which means that there's still a huge crowd of Nintendo fans hunger for this console.

    I'll wait for a few more weeks before trying to predict the average monthly sales. I mean before Christmas season, because this year's holidays are gonna be huge if Nintendo delivers all the games they promised.
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  31. Odo

    Odo Well-Known Member

    I have a prediction, but it's a special one because it's related to one single franchise.

    Analysts usually ignore this. Perhaps because it's not confirmed. If Nintendo is now cooking this game and getting a release ready for 2018/2019, this will drive NSW sales spectacularly.

    Pokemon main frachise title

    I believe it's a given, isn't it? If the next Pokemon main title, successor of Sun/Moon, is an HD, totally new graphics game (of course), playable on TV (of course), this could sell more than X/Y and it could make more users for NSW than the entire Wii U user base.

    X/Y sold 15m, but I believe that a Pokemon for NSW has potential to sell even more and drive at least 10m more users for the console. It'll depend on when the game will come out, the sooner the better. A main Pokemon with HD graphics on TV is going to be a worldwide phenomena that can bring back even those who gave up Pokemon. A Switch Pokemon could finally beat D/P numbers (18m).

    Nintendo needs to take their time and cook the best Pokemon ever. It must shine as much as Zelda does now and it's not hard to pull this off, because Pokemon is the true Nintendo COD.

    I can't wait to see the next Pokemon being announced for Switch. It may be Wii-like hysteria all over again.
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  32. Odo

    Odo Well-Known Member

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  33. sjmartin79

    sjmartin79 White Phoenix of the Crown

    I completley agree. I truly believe this is in the plans. They have to be having the same thoughts. Pokemon you can take on the go and play on your TV... and in HD. That sells systems.
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  34. Odo

    Odo Well-Known Member

    It's a dream coming true for millions.
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  35. mattavelle1

    mattavelle1 Fresh starts now Staff Member Moderator

    My oldest will freak out!

    And it will effectively make our home a 2 Switch household.
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  36. Odo

    Odo Well-Known Member

    Yes, with a killer Pokemon, I can see two consoles here too.
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  37. mattavelle1

    mattavelle1 Fresh starts now Staff Member Moderator

    He will wanna be on it all the time. It's just gonna be easier to get them there own.
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  38. Shoulder

    Shoulder Shouldy McShoulderface chippin' in

    A full-on Pokemon game for the Switch would be Twilight Princess levels of awesome in terms of a reveal. Maybe Nintendo could announce a new Pokemon game at E3 for the Switch, coming out in early 2018.

    But I still would unlikely get Pokemon since I have little interest in the franchise.
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  39. Odo

    Odo Well-Known Member

    yeah and if you decide to play too, you can both trade monsters.
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  40. Odo

    Odo Well-Known Member

    Don't be like that. It's one of the biggest franchises ever. Imagine stunning Pokemon battles in HD on your TV. New mechanics. The rebirth of the franchise. I think it'd attract a lot of new users and who knows, maybe you'd bite it. It would be fresh start on Pokemon for many.
  41. Shoulder

    Shoulder Shouldy McShoulderface chippin' in

    Well, I did get into Monster Hunter 3 Ultimate after everyone here wanted to go all Deviljho on me for not partaking into the festivities, so there's still hope.

    [​IMG]
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  42. Goodtwin

    Goodtwin Well-Known Member

    Nintendo must be pretty confident that they have plenty of hardware driving system sellers coming if they are bumping the hardware production 2x. Even though I have never gotten into Pokémon, I respect the IP as a beast. I still believe there are a few more titles from Nintendo releasing this year that they haven't announced yet. They like to hold back some announcements for E3, and aren't typically too far off from release. I think Smash Bros Deluxe is an obvious title that is coming, and I personally think its coming this year. I could see it being a November or December release to help solidify the Switch as a must have device this Christmas.

    Next question, how long does it take Switch to outsell the Wii U? My guess is 14 months.
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  43. Juegos

    Juegos All mods go to heaven. Staff Member Moderator

    I think Mario Kart 8 Deluxe is going underhyped by those of us that have already played the hell out of it on the Wii U. To all whose last Mario Kart was 7 or Wii, though, MK8 Deluxe is going to be a mindblowing multiplayer experience. It might not sell as well as MK Wii, but that doesn't mean it won't be a fantastic system seller.
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  44. Jacesonnall

    Jacesonnall Bruh

    https://gamerant.com/nintendo-switch-sales-wii-gamestop/

    “The Nintendo Switch is off to a start right now that it could possibly eclipse the Wii. Initial sales on this have been phenomenal. I can’t give straight numbers, but I can say we’re seeing one of the highest attach rates of software and accessories to a device that we’ve seen in a long time.”

    “We’re seeing tremendous success with the power chargers for the Nintendo Switch, as well as people coming in and picking up extra Joy-Con so people can turn it into a four-player device. We will soon be going online with all-new bundles. Because of the popularity of Zelda, which is one of my top picks, we’re putting together a Zelda bundle of hardware and accessories for customers to pick up online.”
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  45. Odo

    Odo Well-Known Member

    I agree. Switch will attract millions of users who doesn't own a Wii U. MK8D has potential to become one of those games that almost every NSW owner will buy.
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  46. Odo

    Odo Well-Known Member

    We finally have 4 weeks of sales numbers in Japan.

    Launch329,152

    week 261,998
    week 349,913

    week 478,441
    TOTAL: 519,504

    And those are the total figures for Wii U and 3DS:

    Wii U 627.257
    3DS 742.154


    As you can see, NSW is still losing compared to Wii U and 3DS. It's a surprise to me that it's selling less than Wii U did. 3DS on the other hand didn't have a good start either, but NSW is too expensive compared to him (3DS was quite pricey but not that much and had more content to provide).

    Anyway, those aren't bad numbers either, because we have to consider that both 3DS and Wii U came out on holidays season. Another fact is the number of NSW games. The only one is Zelda and it's available for Wii U. So far, only Nintendo die hard fans would buy a NSW. As soon as Mario and Splatoon comes out for NSW, as well as summer hits, I believe that those numbers will get the traction we're waiting for. Christmas time will be the gold too.

    So far, I don't call those numbers spectacular, despite the incredible launch, but the NSW is still like a prototype and it seems to me that it's on purpose. The strategy for Switch is get the console ready for Christmas and Nintendo's on track to pull this off.

    Another thing to point out is the fact that NSW alone is far from beating both Wii U and 3DS sales combined. Of course the userbase intersects, but when Nintendo has two systems, Nintendo can get two sales per person at best, but not anymore. On the other hand, it's better to have one successful console than one successful and one piece of crap. Still, Nintendo has only one cow to milk now.

    3DS sales from its second month on, considerably falls due to the price crisis, so it's not gonna be hard to beat 3DS from week 5 on. Beating Wii U is a given.
  47. sjmartin79

    sjmartin79 White Phoenix of the Crown

    Or, you know, it could be supply constraints and it is selling out every week and those are just the units that were available and they all sold?
    Do we have that info?
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  48. Odo

    Odo Well-Known Member

    You have a point, yes.

    I heard that the console is still selling out in Japan every week. I don't have any evidence about this, though, but it seems reasonable since it's selling out in Americas and quite fast in many European countries.

    I have reasons to believe that the shipments will be all right from April on. Nintendo's aware of the situation.
  49. Odo

    Odo Well-Known Member

    I'd like to add that all my last comments were regarding the comparison between Switch and the other Nintendo systems on their release. Comparing with PS4 and XBO and 3DS now, NSW is leading and I expect NSW to keep this position for a foreseeable future. XBO can't beat NSW, considering its sales history and PS4 doesn't have anything this year, so far, that could make it beat a new Nintendo console that can be used as portable.

    If Nintendo do its homework and keep the shipments in health, NSW has everything to stay on the top 1 in Japan for the entire year, in my opinion.
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  50. Goodtwin

    Goodtwin Well-Known Member

    I don't want to get carried away with early sales. I personally do not think you can know if Switch will sell 20 million units lifetime or 100 million based off the first months sales. The Switch is currently limited by supply, but that will most likely start to diminish very soon. If 3 months from now, Switch is still hard to find, then perhaps the momentum is truly there, but right now, Wii U sold 3.5 million in two months. I'm not ready to make any definitive assessments on how well Switch will do long term yet.

    Wii U was an abysmal failure by Nintendo. Not the product itself, but the messaging was so bad that more people understand what the Switch is than Wii U after 4.5 years on the market. I think its safe to say that Switch will quickly outsell the Wii U, but that's hardly a milestone. Can it outsell the SNES? The 3DS? The Wii? Those are milestones of note. If Switch has sold over 12 million units in its first year, then we can declare it a success, but the core Nintendo fans were always going to sell out the first couple million units. Patience my friends.
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