Over the past year, YouTuber Dream has been a major rising star in the Minecraft community. With over 14 million subscribers, he’s been making big waves thanks to a hot streak of lightning-fast speedruns. Minecraft features a ton of RNG, so achieving fast time requires just as much luck as skill, and Dream has had an abundance of both. So much so that people began to question if his runs are completely legitimate. Following a thorough investigation of the statistics, the team at Speedrun.com has accused him of cheating.
Minecraft speedrunner accused of cheating
RNG luck statistical analysis
The Speedrun team has put together a comprehensive 29-page statistical analysis to justify the charge. The primary focus is on the drop rates for Ender Pearls and Blaze Rods. These items are required to beat Minecraft, and the RNG involved in acquiring them can make or break a run. Ender Pearls are (most quickly) acquired by bartering with Piglins, with a 5% chance for each gold ingot you spend. Blaze Rods are dropped by Blazes at a 50% rate.
The team analyzed six consecutive speedruns by Dream and the results were interesting, to say the least. In 262 Piglin barters, he received 42 Ender Pearls. Meanwhile, killing 305 Blazes netted him 211 Blaze Rods. His RNG luck over these six streams is far above average, but more importantly, it’s far better luck than any other top Minecraft speedrunner. They concluded that the “upper bound on the chance that anyone in the Minecraft speedrunning community would ever get luck comparable to Dream” is 1 in 7.5 trillion.
Dream denies the allegations
This excessive RNG luck was first pointed out by MinecrAvenger on October 16. As people began asking questions, Dream defended his times and argued that people were misinterpreting the data and failing to account for bias. The Speedrunner team’s article and video attempt to take all of his arguments into account in their statistical model. After the video went live, he continued to deny the allegations.
He is accusing Geosquare (publisher of the video) of being biased and of click-baiting. He claims that there is dissent among the Speedrunner mods, with some disagreeing with the ruling. At this time we have not yet seen any such mods step forward.
He also pointed out an error in the video in regards to his mod folder, which Geosquare quickly acknowledged and apologized for. Dream has published a collection of files that he believes prove his innocence, but many in the speedrunning community are thoroughly unconvinced.